Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $961,938$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{981,724.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 148.3)}}\) (asimptote \(981,724.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $94,808$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,785.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 128.0)}}\) (asimptote \(93,785.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,471$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,860,558$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,684,170.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 165.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,684,170.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $237,113$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,352.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 100.8)}}\) (asimptote \(229,352.7\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,771,980$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $138,506$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138,448.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 149.5)}}\) (asimptote \(138,448.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,781$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,783.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 144.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,783.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,902$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $116,363$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{136,094.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 199.1)}}\) (asimptote \(136,094.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,464$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,739.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 194.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,739.4\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,780$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $263,220$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{452,097.9}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 248.4)}}\) (asimptote \(452,097.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,547$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,299.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 56.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,299.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,335$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $100,041$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,725.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 152.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,725.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,745$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,777.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,777.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $54,481$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $111,050$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,900.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 140.4)}}\) (asimptote \(107,900.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,811$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,607.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 118.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,607.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,431$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $129,645$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{129,995.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 138.9)}}\) (asimptote \(129,995.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,263$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,619.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 140.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,619.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,802$ on 2020-11-07