Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Costa Rica
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Guatemala
  • Dominican Republic
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • El Salvador

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $961,938$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{981,724.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 148.3)}}\) (asimptote \(981,724.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94,808$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,785.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 128.0)}}\) (asimptote \(93,785.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,471$ on 2020-11-07

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,860,558$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,684,170.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 165.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,684,170.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $237,113$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,352.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 100.8)}}\) (asimptote \(229,352.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,771,980$ on 2020-11-07

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $138,506$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138,448.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 149.5)}}\) (asimptote \(138,448.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,781$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,783.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 144.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,783.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,902$ on 2020-11-07

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $116,363$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{136,094.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 199.1)}}\) (asimptote \(136,094.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,464$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,739.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 194.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,739.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,780$ on 2020-11-07

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $263,220$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{452,097.9}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 248.4)}}\) (asimptote \(452,097.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,547$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,299.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 56.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,299.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,335$ on 2020-11-07

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $100,041$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,725.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 152.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,725.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,745$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,777.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,777.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,481$ on 2020-11-07

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $111,050$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,900.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 140.4)}}\) (asimptote \(107,900.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,811$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,607.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 118.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,607.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,431$ on 2020-11-07

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $129,645$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{129,995.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 138.9)}}\) (asimptote \(129,995.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,263$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,619.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 140.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,619.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,802$ on 2020-11-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Trinidad and Tobago recovered 76%
El Salvador recovered 75%
Panama recovered 26%

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,838$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,712.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 182.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,712.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $111$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 180.2)}}\) (asimptote \(118.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $600$ on 2020-11-07

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,145$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,515.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 128.9)}}\) (asimptote \(32,515.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,006$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{956.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 127.3)}}\) (asimptote \(956.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,967$ on 2020-11-07